“Greetings,
My grandfather, Herbert Woodward, was quite an intellectual and accomplished writer with several published books, articles and short stories. One of my favorite writings of his was called “The Hinge of History” which cited an example of a simple radio miscommunication in the Pacific during World War 2 that almost certainly prolonged our war against Japan and had that message been correctly interpreted, we may not have used the atomic bomb. The article that follows is my modern day version, a tribute to my beloved late grandfather, written in March of 2005 and edited today for your reading and reflecting pleasure!
Enjoy!!!”
Like it or not, chance is still a major factor in our lives that cannot be eliminated. Random events transpire billions of times per day which keep our futures in a constant state of flux.
At times we are swept helplessly by the tide of events yet other times the small force we all command can become decisive in changing the course of history. Nature dictates that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction and the idea that “when a butterfly flaps its wings" has a profound impact on all of our lives.
Butterfly Effect is a phrase that embraces the idea that small variations in the initial conditions of a dynamic system can produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. A common description of the effect says that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas months later.
"The butterfly effect was quite possibly inspired by the 1952 Ray Bradbury short story A Sound of Thunder. In that story, a time traveler accidentally steps on a butterfly in the distant past, causing broad changes in the present.
The practical consequence of the butterfly effect is that complex systems such as the weather and the stock or bond markets are difficult to predict over any useful time range. Finite models that attempt to simulate these systems still don’t possess the ability to fully account for the system and the timing of events. These errors are magnified as each unit of time is simulated until the error bound on the result exceeds one hundred per cent.
It is at this point, that the butterfly could have actually caused the tornado!
AS THE WORLD TURNS
Think about your life...
There are always some decisions which seemed inconsequential at the time yet they changed your life forever. We all have them. A chance meeting with a person who winds up a spouse, best friend or employer. The accident you just avoided by leaving your office two minutes late. The seemingly meaningless conversation which changed your decision at a future crossroads.
Life leads us down many paths and the simple decisions we make can have huge consequences on not only ourselves, but hundreds and sometimes even billions of people.
Indeed the relatively small actions of one person can change history as we all know it.
In 1981 Secret Service Agent Timothy Mc McCarthy took a bullet in the stomach that may have killed Ronald Reagan. Had his dive in front of our nation’s leader been a split second too late, our lives would probably all be different in some ways. On the other hand, had someone said “Hey Oswald what are you doing with that rifle?” back in 1963, history may have been unknowingly changed forever.
And then of course there is the biggest game of chance of all…which sperm penetrates the egg? The random outcome of this event is fairly obvious within most families. Will that child grow up to be a Ronald Reagan or a Lee Harvey Oswald?
HEADS YOU LOSE!
Indeed simple decisions and actions like where to have lunch, turn left or right, stop or keep going, can change your life and that of many others. Like life, most sports are games of inches which can be both glorious or painful depending on the slimmest of margins.
Consider this example of how something incredibly simple can have such a huge impact.
Back in 1979, the NBA used to flip a coin between the two teams with the worst records for the number one pick in the draft. The Chicago Bulls called "heads" and the coin came up "tails," thereby giving the first pick to the New Orleans Jazz. But the Jazz had to give the pick to the Los Angeles Lakers as compensation for signing one of their free agents, Gail Goodrich, who they signed in 1976 and had retired by 1979.
That number one pick became Magic Johnson from Michigan State.
The next season, led by their rookie guard, the Lakers became NBA champions and there would be several more. The New Orleans Jazz moved and became the Utah Jazz without playing another game in Louisiana. And if Chicago won the coin flip there is little doubt that they would not have been in a position a few years later to draft a player by the name of Michael Jordan.
This is why you never give up and never underestimate the powers of your actions and their accompanying reactions because you never know where or when you’ll find your “Magic”!
BETTER THAN 50/50
If the weatherman armed with technology and millions of observations from the National Weather Service, can’t tell us what is going to happen in the next few hours how could we possibly expect to predict the future?
Those who win at things like gambling and market forecasting understand that any time you use your resources to put the odds in your favor 51% of the time you are doing well. And to continue to be better than 50% requires that you play the game by the book and never deviate from your system.
These people are making a conscious decision to look for the circumstances they want rather than leaving it to “chance”. They understand the presence of chance in their endeavors but they tip the scales in their favor as much as humanly possible by seeking the right situations rather than letting situations seek them.
You too can manage your business and your life this way. Find the circumstances you want, and take control over every variable you can in order to tip the scales in your favor.
The butterfly effect gives us reassurance that what do has an impact, but it also reassures us that the forecasting of future events, like interest rates and the stock market, is far too dependent upon events and factors out of our control to even think we really know what is going to happen next more than about 51% of the time.
Life, like most sports, is truly a game of inches and much of our lives are left to chance. However, it is what we make of the chances we get that determine our destiny!